Auteur/autrice : Martin Ransom

  • Environmental groups v. SpaceX

    Environmental groups v. SpaceX

    By Steve Gorman REUTERS published 1/5/2023

    SpaceX Starship launches from Boca Chica, near Brownsville
    SpaceX’s next-generation Starship spacecraft atop its powerful Super Heavy rocket lifts off from the company’s Boca Chica launchpad on an uncrewed test flight before exploding, near Brownsville, Texas, U.S. April 20, 2023. REUTERS/Joe Skipper

    May 1, (Reuters) – Conservation groups sued the Federal Aviation Administration on Monday, challenging its approval of expanded rocket launch operations by Elon Musk’s SpaceX next to a national wildlife refuge in South Texas without requiring greater environmental study.

    The lawsuit comes 11 days after SpaceX made good on a new FAA license to send its next-generation Starship rocket on its first test flight, ending with the vehicle exploding over the Gulf of Mexico after blasting the launchpad to ruins on liftoff.

    The shattering force of the launch hurled chunks of reinforced concrete and metal shrapnel thousands of feet from the site, adjacent to the Lower Rio Grand Valley National Wildlife Refuge near Boca Chica State Park and Beach.

    The blast also ignited a 3.5-acre (1.4-hectare) brush fire and sent a cloud of pulverized concrete drifting 6.5 miles (10.5 km) to the northwest and raining down over tidal flats and the nearby town of Port Isabel, according to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

    SpaceX hailed the launch as a qualified success that will yield valuable data to advance development of its Starship and Super Heavy rocket, major components in NASA’s new Artemis program for returning astronauts to the moon.

    But Monday’s lawsuit said the April 20 incident marked the latest in a series of at least nine explosive mishaps at Boca Chica, disrupting a haven for federally protected wildlife and vital habitat for migratory birds.

    Noise, light pollution, construction and road traffic also degrade the area, home to endangered ocelots and jaguarundis, as well as nesting sites for endangered Kemp’s Ridley sea turtles and critical habitat for threatened shorebirds, the suit says.

    The disturbances show the FAA violated federal law by permitting expanded operations at Musk’s Starbase in Boca Chica without mandating the full environmental impact study (EIS) normally required for major projects, the lawsuit asserts.

    The 31-page complaint seeks to revoke the FAA license and require an EIS.

    The FAA’s chief of staff for the Office of Commercial Space Transportation had stated in a June 2020 email that the agency planned to conduct an EIS, but the FAA « subsequently deferred to SpaceX » and performed a less rigorous review instead, according to the lawsuit.

    An FAA spokesperson said the agency, as a matter of policy does not comment on active litigation. There was no immediate word on the case from SpaceX.

    Musk, the billionaire founder and chief executive of the California-based company, addressed criticism from environmentalists in remarks during an event on Saturday, saying the debris scattered by last month’s launch amounted to « a human-made sandstorm. »

    « It’s not toxic at all or anything, » he said. « It did scatter a lot of dust, but to the best of our knowledge, there has not been any meaningful damage to the environment that we’re aware of. »

    SHORT-CUT ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW?

    SpaceX had vigorously opposed subjecting its Starbase to an EIS review, a process that typically takes years. An EIS involves extensive analysis of the project at stake and alternatives, along with mitigation plans to curb or offset harmful impacts. It also entails public review and comment and often re-evaluation and supplemental study.

    The FAA granted its license following a far less thorough environmental assessment and a finding that SpaceX activities at Boca Chica pose « no significant impact » on the environment. The lawsuit challenges that finding as a violation of the National Environmental Policy Act, contending that the assessment and mitigation measures incorporated into the license fall short of the law’s requirements.

    The case highlights a history of tension between environmentalists, who have sought to limit development at Boca Chica, and Musk, a hard-charging entrepreneur known for risk taking.

    « It’s vital that we protect life on Earth even as we look to the stars in this modern era of spaceflight, » said Jared Margolis, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, one of several groups bringing the suit in federal court in the District of Columbia.

    Musk has said SpaceX plans to install a water-cooling system and steel reinforcements for the launchpad to prevent a repeat of blastoff damage, and could be ready for another test flight of the rocket, the most powerful ever built, in the next couple of months.

    For the time being, the Starship and the Super Heavy rocket are effectively grounded under a « mishap » investigation opened by the FAA immediately after the launch, as required by law.

    Reporting by Steve Gorman in Los Angeles; editing by Diane Craft

  • La « mésangerie »

    La « mésangerie »

    Suite de la « mésangerie » avec, ce dimanche 7 mai, une vidéo un peu plus longue, de 5:20.

    Dans laquelle, avant que la mère arrive, on remarque la vigueur de certains oisillons qui arrivent à grimper presque entièrement hors du trou du nid.

    On peut voir des traits blancs sur leurs petites ailes bien développées alors que leurs corps rougeâtres sont encore dépouillés.

    Quand la mère arrive, elle se met à faire le ménage dans le fond, apparemment sans grand souci pour ses petits. L’un profite d’être « squeezé » pour grimper.

    Cet apm la famille a fait connaissance avec d’autres bruits: ceux de la tondeuse et débroussailleuse. Cela a peut-être énervé la mère qui (de peur?) a du rester tranquille – car le système vidéo n’a rien enregistré! 😉

    Continuing with our « bluetit house » series, on Sunday, May 7, there was a slightly longer video of 5:20.

    In the video, before the mother arrives, one can notice the vigor of some chicks who manage to climb almost entirely out of the nest hole.

    The video shows white markings on their well-developed small wings while their reddish bodies are still naked.

    When the mother arrives, she starts cleaning the bottom of the nest, apparently without much concern for her young. One chick takes advantage of being « squished » to climb.

    In the afternoon, the family heard other sounds, those of a lawnmower and trimmer. This may have upset the mother who (out of fear?) remained still – because the video system did not record anything! 😉

    https://www.facebook.com/martinolivier.ransom/videos/1316742205573767

  • Création et réflexions

    Création et réflexions

    Post sur Facebook de Sylvie Decobert le 5 mai 2023

    Il existe une sorte de fil subtil, qui peut s’exprimer dans différents contextes et de différentes manières, restant toujours reconnaissable, dans le processus créatif.

    Même s’il est vrai que certains artistes reproduisent année après année le même style de création, et génèrent quelque chose de déjà vu et connu, il n’est pas rare pour eux aussi de faire d’infimes variations qui continuent d’évoluer et d’etonner.

    Ces changements sont encore plus spectaculaires pour certains artistes comme moi, dont la créativité évolue très vite et utilisent surtout différents supports d’expression : peinture, collage, cire, volumes, tissu, crayonnés, broderies… Et bien sûr, chacun peut toujours trouver son propre fil, le suivre et tisser sa propre expérience.

    Encore plus intéressant pour un artiste de se demander pourquoi il fait certains choix créatifs plutôt que d’autres et comment tous se relient entre eux, souvent à son insu. C’est aussi surprenant de voir quel vocabulaire est utilisé pour décrire un travail. Le mien serait « doux », « poétique », « onirique », « mystérieux », « délicat », « profond » et « métaphorique »… Parfois, on est surpris de ces qualificatifs, car l’artiste peut y voir tout autre chose 😅 Si vous suivez ma page depuis quelque temps, vous pourriez peut-être gentiment vous aussi me laisser vos mots pour décrire mes créations selon vous en commentaire, c’est toujours intéressant pour un artiste de savoir comment son travail est perçu par d’autres que lui-même 😉 Merci d’avance pour vos retours ☺️

    J’ai découvert rétrospectivement que mes livres préférés suivent aussi la même piste : j’aime la poésie, les fragments, les images, les collages, les textes métaphoriques, tout ce qui est passionné, tout ce qui sort de l’ordinaire…

    Si l’artiste, comme j’ai la très grande chance de pouvoir le faire, peut bouger et travailler avec assez de liberté, sans une contrainte financière, il lui sera plus facile de trouver son chemin, de le reconnaître et de nourrir son processus créatif.

    Surtout, il faut du temps pour tout processus créatif pour s’autoriser à s’exprimer et devenir lui-même. Artistes, soyez doux envers vous-mêmes et pour ceux qui se pensent incapables de créer, il est toujours temps de vous découvrir et de commencer cette fabuleuse aventure de la créativité.

    Réaction : Tu peux deviner que je suis sur les mêmes longueurs d’ondes, me posant souvent (trop souvent) de questions sur les aspects psychologiques / philosophiques de la création, sous toutes ses formes, surtout l’image et le cinéma, (et dans la famille!!) et à estimer que je ne suis pas « à la hauteur » de mes aspirations (ou de mes aïeux). Et qu’un texte de réflexion comme celui-ci me touche beaucoup.

    Sylvie Decobert Atelier

    Martin,  Je crois qu’on n’est jamais à la hauteur de ses aspirations, douter de soi c’est excellent signe. Même le fameux « syndrome de l’imposteur » est un indicateur de fiabilité et de sérieux, de nombreuses études sociologiques l’ont prouvé. La confiance en soi absolue est plutôt assez stérile pour soi et les autres, les vrais experts doutent, alors que ceux qui n’y connaissent pas grand-chose ne doutent pas: en un sens, c’est normal, ils n’ont pas conscience de l’étendue de leurs lacunes alors que les experts oui 😅 Il faut énormément d’années d’expérience pour dépasser ses doutes, et encore, pour ma part, j’espère bien les garder jusqu’à la fin de ma vie car j’ai conscience de leur préciosité. C’est douter qui fait aller de l’avant 🙏 Je suis aussi très intéressée par les processus créatifs, je trouve dommage que peu d’artistes s’y attardent et partagent avec les autres le fruit de leur réflexion. Pour ma part, je trouve le processus quasiment plus intéressant parfois que le résultat.
  • Starship test : official explanations

    Starship test : official explanations

    ArsTechnica – Eric Berger, posted 1st May 2023

    In a wide-ranging talk on Saturday night, SpaceX founder Elon Musk reviewed the debut launch of the Starship rocket on April 20. The bottom line, he said, is that the vehicle’s flight slightly exceeded his expectations and that damage to the launch site was not all that extensive. He expects Starship to fly again in as few as two or three months. « Basically the outcome was roughly sort of what I expected and maybe slightly exceeded my expectations, » he said. « And I’m glad to report that the pad damage is actually quite small, and it looks like it can be repaired quite quickly. It was actually just good to get this vehicle off the ground because we’ve made so many improvements in Booster 9 and beyond. » Musk spoke for about an hour during a Twitter spaces event, responding to questions from several journalists and spaceflight enthusiasts. For those unable to listen, what follows is a summary of what Musk said.

    On the flight

    When the rocket lifted off, there were three engines whose ignition was terminated because the flight software did not deem them « healthy enough » to bring to full thrust. That left 30 of the Super Heavy first stage’s 33 engines in good condition, which is the minimum allowable number for liftoff. Musk said he did not believe these three engines were damaged by the gravel and concrete kicked up by the immense thrust created by the rocket as it slowly lifted off from the pad. « Weirdly, we did not see evidence of the rock tornado actually damaging engines or heat shields in a material way, » he said. « It may have been, but we have not yet seen evidence of that. » At 27 seconds into the flight, engine 19 lost communications concurrent with some kind of “energetic event,” Musk said. This also liberated the outer heat shield from four nearby engines. SpaceX engineers are still assessing exactly what this energetic event was. “So something bad happened at T-plus 27 seconds because the engine 19 lost all communications, and some kind of explosion happened to knock out the heat shields of engines 17, 18, 19, and 20, » Musk said. « There were visible fires seen from the aft end of the vehicle for the remainder of the flight, but the rocket kept going. At T-plus 62 seconds, we see additional aft heat shield damage near engine 30; however, the engine continues to run. And then T-plus 85 seconds is where things really hit the fan. » At that point, the rocket started to lose its thrust vector control, or the ability to steer itself. This led to the initiation of the flight termination system.

    Flight termination system

    Just before a minute and a half into its mission, the rocket’s flight termination system was initiated to break up the vehicle before it veered too far off course. Essentially, the ordnance on board the rocket detonates to rupture its fuel tanks, leading to a breakup. However, in this case, there was about a 40-second delay in the initiation of the system and the rocket breaking apart. This time lag posed no safety issues with the rocket safely offshore, but it is an unacceptable lag for a system that is supposed to terminate flight almost immediately. Musk said the problem could be solved with a « longer detonation cord » to make sure the propellant tanks are fully unzipped rapidly. However, he acknowledged that working through this issue with the Federal Aviation Administration may take some time. « The longest lead item is probably requalification of the flight termination system, » Musk said. « That’s obviously something that we want to make sure of before proceeding with the next flight. »

    Hardening the launch site

    Musk also addressed the damage observed at the launch site, including a large hole dug by the rocket’s thrust. The damage from what he described as the « world’s biggest cutting torch » ripped through a material called Fondag, which is one of the most heavy-duty concretes in the world. « We’re going to be putting down a lot of steel, » Musk said of the area at the rocket’s base, which he characterized as a ‘mega-steel pancake.’ This would provide both strength below the rocket and a regenerative cooling system by pumping water upward to dampen exhaust from the rocket’s 33 engines. « That is basically a water-jacketed sandwich that’s two layers of plate steel that are also perforated on the upper side, » Musk said. « So that is basically a massive, super-strong steel shower head pointing upward. » This approach should reduce damage to the launch site and eliminate the propagation of concrete bits and dust that were observed during the initial test flight last month. « The debris is really just basically sand and rock, so it’s not toxic at all or anything, » he said. « It’s just like a sandstorm, essentially. Basically a human-made sandstorm. But we don’t want to do that again. »

    Thrust vector control

    Had the Super Heavy booster not lost thrust vector control, the vehicle may have made it to stage separation, Musk said. Ensuring the ability of the rocket to continue to steer itself, even with multiple engine failures, is key for the next flight attempt with Booster 9, the company’s next-in-line rocket. « Booster 9 is a lot easier because we use electric motors to steer the engines as opposed to hydraulic actuators, where you’ve got a common manifold between the hydraulic actuators, » Musk said. « The electric actuated engines will be much more isolated. » It will be key to ensure that any single engine failures are isolated, and the company has made the rocket more robust for this purpose, he said. « If you have extremely good engine isolation and an engine fails, it does not cause a failure of neighboring engine or the stage itself, » Musk said. « Because then if you lose one of 33 engines, that’s a 3 percent thrust loss. It’s not a big deal. If you do not have good engine isolation, then an engine failure can domino to other engines or to parts of the stage, then you have an extremely unreliable design. »

    Expectations for the next flight

    Because of the rocket and launch pad upgrades, Musk said he anticipates SpaceX being ready for a second Starship launch attempt in six to eight weeks. However, he acknowledged that closing out work with the Federal Aviation Administration on the flight termination system and taking other measures necessary for a launch license may take longer. He is cautiously optimistic about the next launch attempt, which will repeat the same mission profile—Super Heavy launches and lands in the Gulf of Mexico; Starship separates, nearly reaches orbital velocity, and then returns into the Pacific Ocean north of Hawaii. « I think this time, we’ve got a better than 50 percent chance of reaching orbit, » he said. « I’m hopeful we can get four flights out this year, or maybe five. » The goal of these initial flights is to continue to gather information about the performance of Super Heavy and Starship. After the launch system can reliably reach orbit, the next phase of the program will involve demonstrating in-space fuel transfer and beginning to land and reuse both the booster and upper stages. « It’ll probably take us a few more years to achieve reusability on a regular basis, where we bring the booster back and bring the ship back, » he said. « It’ll take a few years to get to where Falcon 9 is today, where it is quite normal for the rocket to land. » Musk estimated that SpaceX will spend about $2 billion on the Starship program in 2023 but that he does not anticipate needing to raise additional capital this year.
  • Boris is « extraordinarily empty »

    Boris is « extraordinarily empty »

    The Guardian published 30/4/2023 by Tim Adams

    Anthony Selon, the distinguished historian and headteacher, discusses his latest book about a contemporary prime minister, a devastating – and dispiriting – account of Johnson’s chaotic reign

    Sir Anthony Seldon, the famous headteacher, has been writing book-length report cards on British prime ministers for 40 years. The latest, on Boris Johnson, based on the accounts of more than 200 people who witnessed his catastrophic, clown-car time in office first-hand, is a test not only of Seldon’s method, but also his tone. In previous volumes the author has assumed a base level of gravitas in his subjects, and of structure in their government. Though he employs the same quasi-legal model for his inquiry here, gathering careful evidence, weighing judgments, the story he pieces together is often one of venal mayhem; it frequently reads like a considered constitutional appraisal of rats in a sack.

    There is a telling coincidence in the fact that the first indelible report of Johnson’s behaviour was also the work of a school master. Martin Hammond’s infamous notes on Johnson at Eton, which recorded his “disgracefully cavalier attitude”, his “gross failure of responsibility” and his deep-seated belief that he “should be free of the network of obligation that binds everyone else” is the opening source of Seldon’s account. Johnson’s “end was in his beginning”, he argues. Speaking to me about his book last week, Seldon noted that Hammond – who had been the “formidable pipe-smoking” head at Tonbridge school when he started out as a teacher – was a longstanding inspiration, both as an educator and a writer. “Two things,” he says. “One is that his report was typically acute and detailed, like a psychiatrist’s analysis. And second: just how much the character is formed very early on.”

    Seldon is very well placed to offer the much fuller version of that analysis. He came to national prominence as a thinker on education as head of Brighton college and then Wellington college. He recently returned, at 69, to his former day job by agreeing to take over the headship of Epsom college after the murder of Emma Pattison and her daughter in February. The day we meet is the day before the new term at Epsom, where Seldon has an 18-month contract. The aim, he said on taking the role, would be “to provide the confidence, stability and maturity to see the school through the aftershocks of the deaths of Emma and Lettie Pattison”.

    In recent years, Seldon has experienced some of the effects of instability and grief on a personal level. His last book before the volume on Johnson was a thoughtful, heartfelt journey on foot along the western front of the great war. He undertook it, he wrote at the time, because his endlessly busy life had come unmoored. He had lost his beloved wife to cancer in 2016 and had quit his job as vice-chancellor of the private University of Buckingham after disputes with the board. Though he had long been a proponent of teaching wellbeing, “enduring peace” eluded him. He traced some of that disquiet back to the fallout of anxiety and depression that was a legacy of his maternal grandfather, who was badly wounded in the first world war. The walk was an exorcising of demons. “Could I change to a less manic gear?” he wondered. “Writing a book on Boris Johnson, as planned, if I was to keep up my rhythm of books on recently departed prime ministers, would hardly help me do this…”

    Seldon is far too rigorous a historian to let that backstory seep into his account of Johnson in office (which was co-written with the historian Raymond Newell). However, you have a strong sense reading it, talking to him, that the soul searching fuelled his efforts to capture the exact nature of Johnson’s irresponsibility in office. Seldon is a man who has devoted his life to understanding and nurturing the kind of emotional intelligence and civic responsibility from which society can be woven. Johnson represents the wilful rupture of those beliefs. Talking about him, Seldon acknowledges the former prime minister’s charisma “lights up the room”, but you sense too his almost personal feeling of betrayal at the squandering of those gifts, that headmasterly reaction that Johnson had let down his school, his family, his nation, but most of all, himself.

    Of the 57 people who have held the highest office, Seldon suggests, Johnson was probably unique in that he came to it with “no sense of any fixed position. No religious faith, no political ideology”. His only discernible ambition, Seldon says, was that “like Roman emperors he wanted monuments in his name”.

    “To those many people who say, ‘Of course he believed in Brexit’, the evidence is absolutely clear,” Seldon says. “From the beginning it was striking that he believed that there was a cause far higher than Britain’s economic interests, than Britain’s relationship with Europe, than Britain’s place in the world, than the strength of the union. That cause was his own advancement.”


    The eyewitness reports of events in Seldon’s book expose once and for all the great con of the referendum campaign that has so savaged the country and its economy. We learn from many named and unnamed sources that even Johnson was outraged by some of the stunts pulled by Dominic Cummings in the name of Vote Leave. Confronted with the xenophobic – and untrue – scaremongering that Turkey was about to join the EU, one confidant reports that “[Johnson] wanted to come down to London and apparently punch Cummings”. On the morning of the referendum result itself, Seldon writes, Johnson “paced around in a Brazilian football shirt and misfitting shorts looking ashen-faced and distraught. ‘What the hell is happening?’ he kept saying… Soon after, stopping in his tracks, a new thought struck him: ‘Oh shit, we’ve got no plan. We haven’t thought about it. I didn’t think it would happen. Holy crap, what will we do?’”

    Johnson’s eventual solution to getting Brexit done as prime minister was to bring in Cummings to do the work that he had no appetite for, in the full knowledge that his chief adviser was a wholly destructive force. That, Seldon, suggests to me, was another first for British political leadership:

    “There has never been a prime minister who has been so weak to have ceded so much power to a figure like Cummings. Here was someone who went ahead and removed the chancellor of the exchequer, to replace them with someone more biddable. Who knocked out the cabinet secretary and head of the civil service, appointing someone unable to assert himself. Who tried knocking out and appointing his own person as governor of the Bank of England, and as head of MI6. While all the time expressing contempt for Johnson.”

    The book describes how after the 2019 election Cummings assumed universal power across government as Brexit and then the pandemic unfolded. (Johnson at one point raged impotently that: “I am meant to be in control. I am the führer. I’m the king who takes the decisions.”) Unwilling to confront his chief of staff directly, it is said that Johnson frequently employed the excuse that he was subject to the “mad and crazy” demands of Carrie, his fiancee upstairs. (In response to the book a spokesperson for Johnson described that allegation as “malevolent and sexist twaddle”.)

    Seldon suggests now that the results of this chaotic approach “took us back to a pre-1832 world of court politics when the idea of a programmatic government with a series of policies and beliefs hadn’t yet been formed. It was just a milieu of shifting alliances and factions.” One of the striking aspects of his book is that the world beyond the confines of No 10, the reality of unprecedented national crisis in millions of people’s lives, hardly ever gets a look in, so concerned are the principal actors in this drama with protecting their sorry backsides.

    Johnson could have been the prime minister he craved to be, but he wasn’t, because of his utter inability to learn

    Cummings was one of the few participants in that Downing Street and Whitehall farce who did not speak to Seldon. The author does not feel that the omission is significant, since Cummings has written so very much about this period, “and his footprints are over everything anyway. People will make their own judgments,” he says of what he discovered, “but I don’t think that it’s remotely unfair to Cummings or for that matter to Johnson.”

    The most dispiriting thing about reading the book is that dawning sense that all your worst imaginings about the conduct of that government were, it seems, played out in real time. Seldon argues that the double act in the oven-ready years of prorogation and Barnard Castle really did deserve each other, even if none of us deserved them.

    “I suppose at least Cummings did believe in Brexit, although ultimately, really, did he?” he says. “From everything we heard [for the book] it just seemed Cummings was full of hatred. He probably hates himself; he certainly hates other people. He wants to destroy everything. Johnson in his own way never knew what he stood for, but he shared that contempt for the Tory party, contempt for the cabinet, contempt for the civil service, contempt for the EU, contempt for the army, contempt for business, contempt for intellectuals, contempt for universities.”


     

    About a decade ago, Seldon, who is a governor of the Royal Shakespeare Company, began an informal programme with David Cameron’s government that sought to provide for the present incumbents of the highest office some history of No 10 itself and their predecessors there. He staged a series of talks from prominent historians, as well as performances of Shakespeare in the rose garden, in the belief that politicians “might root themselves in the arts, in the benchmark of what is good and true”. He recalls a performance that the RSC gave for Cameron and guests just before the former resigned as prime minister: “It was quite a moving occasion in the garden. The killing of Caesar was one of the scenes and I remember watching Cameron with his daughter leaning on his shoulder and Samantha next to him.”

    When Johnson came to power Seldon hoped the programme might continue – Johnson did after all have a lucrative contract to write a book about Shakespeare. There was no interest whatsoever. “Covid made things difficult obviously,” he says, “but we did come in. Johnson never once showed up. As [his school reports showed] he had no deep interest in any classical history, language or literature or Shakespeare. His examples were always for show. At his heart, he is extraordinarily empty. He can’t keep faithful to any idea, any person, any wife.”

    The tragedy of that fact was twofold, Seldon argues. For one thing Johnson was a non-starter as a competent prime minister, let alone a great one. The historian numbers nine out of 57 in that latter category (Attlee and Thatcher are the two who make the cut postwar). “The great prime ministers are all there at moments of great historical importance,” he says. “But they have to respond to them well. Chamberlain didn’t; Churchill in 1940, did. Asquith didn’t; Lloyd George did in 1916. Johnson had Brexit, he had the pandemic, he had the invasion of Ukraine and incipient third world war. He could have been the prime minister he craved to be, but he wasn’t, because of his utter inability to learn.”

    We saw some fear of some of the people around Gordon Brown, but this was off the scale. And that’s a deeply unhealthy facet of modern government

    The related tragedy was the national one, in which we are still living. Whatever you thought of Brexit, Seldon argues – he thought it was a bad idea – it did provide “the overdue opportunity to modernise the British state and Britain’s institutions. There was a desperate need to bring the civil service up to date,” he says. “To forge better connections between universities and public life, to rejuvenate professions.”

    But of course the adolescent “disruptors” that Johnson was amused and supported by had no interest in that work. Their goal was either personal enrichment or, in Cummings’s case, the application of that Silicon Valley mantra “to move fast and break things”. Disruptive change can work in the commercial sector because you are replacing one product or technology with another in a limited market. One lesson of Seldon’s book is that to apply that idea to government is a fundamental misunderstanding of what government is. Degrading and destroying institutions is not the way to reform them.

    “People we spoke to were afraid of Cummings, personal fear,” he says. “And to an extent of the whole Johnson court. In the seven books I’ve written, we saw some fear of some of the people around Gordon Brown, but this was off the scale. And that’s a deeply unhealthy facet of modern government that you let in people who are using fear as a method of control. Quite a lot of that was misogynistic in what we saw.”

    In another of his roles, Seldon has been tasked with examining how institutional competence and trust might be re-established. He has recently become deputy chair of something called the Commission on the Centre of Government, created by the Institute for Government, which will recommend steps to improve the workings of the Cabinet Office and No 10, post-pandemic and Brexit and Johnson and Cummings.

    “The fact is,” he says, “people come into No 10 knowing less about [complex organisations] than most people running companies employing less than 20 people. That’s forgivable. What is unforgivable is that almost without exception, they do not want to learn how to do it. They think they know best. They are often snide, poisonous, dismissive of previous teams, particularly teams from their same party. And they come in with frothing adrenaline and swagger.”

    If Johnson was the blueprint of that failing, his immediate successor, prime minister Liz Truss, was a kind of cringeworthy caricature of hubris (Seldon will write about her costly tenure as a £65bn preface to the arrival of Sunak). Given these examples is he optimistic that confidence in government can be rebuilt?

    “I think that Johnson and Cummings were what was needed to bring the country to its senses,” he suggests. “People didn’t want things broken up. They wanted to be listened to. They wanted institutions that were more relevant to them. They felt excluded by metropolitan elite. Nobody is happy with what has happened.”

    We can agree on that much, I suggest. But does he really think that the lessons of Johnson’s government have been learned?

    “If Johnson understood more about classical philosophy, he’d have recognised that an antithesis – being against something – isn’t enough. The country now needs a synthesis from whichever party. The great prime ministers are healers and teachers. They need to be able to tell a story of where they have come from and to where they will lead us.”

    Is that leader evident to him?

    “Well,” he says, “this is the reason why for the moment Starmer is disappointing, because there is this enormous desire for renewal. But Starmer seems micro when he could be macro, cautious when he could be passionate, dull where he could be inspirational.”

    He doesn’t make it sound like much of a page-turner, I say. But having read the current volume, I’ll still be looking forward to that particular sequel.

       

        • Johnson at 10 by Anthony Seldon and Raymond Newell is published by Atlantic (£25). To support the Guardian and Observer order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply

    • Starship : L’effroyable bilan carbone

      Starship : L’effroyable bilan carbone

      Publié le 25/4/2023 par la Rédaction du sitemobiwisy.fr

      Le 20 avril 2023, Elon Musk et sa société SpaceX ont fait décoller Starship, la fusée la plus grande et polluante de l’histoire.

      Les délires de conquête spatiale et d’appropriation de l’orbite terrestre par Elon Musk et SpaceX, afin d’y installer des milliers de satellites commerciaux, ont un impact environnemental gigantesque sur la planète. Et donc sur ses habitants, sa faune et sa flore. Pas sûr que les cris de joie et les applaudissements, comme entendus sur la vidéo fournie par SpaceX, soient appropriés.

      Derrière l’ébahissement populaire qui consiste à admirer une grosse fusée haute de 120 mètres et large de 9 mètres viser la lune, il y a surtout l’incohérence schizophrénique de notre société. Jeudi 20 avril 2023, le plus gros engin spatial jamais conçu, SpaceX Starship, a ainsi réussi son envol avant d’exploser 3 minutes plus tard, à 30 000 mètres d’altitude. Par son gigantisme, Starship fait peser une énorme menace sur la planète, et pas seulement les environs de son pas de tir. Et la gronde n’a pas tardé à gagner les États-Unis.

      Il faut dire que le projet éveille les interrogations les plus légitimes. Comment SpaceX a pu obtenir l’autorisation de faire décoller sa fusée à proximité immédiate de la réserve naturelle de Boca Chica, à l’extrême sud du Texas ? Il s’agit d’un sanctuaire pour la faune animale parmi la plus menacée de la planète (tortues marines Ridley de Kemp, oiseaux migrateurs, etc.). Comment l’organe fédéral américain qui délivre les autorisations de vol, la FAA (Federal Aviation Administration), a-t-elle pas minimiser l’impact du démarrage, à pleine puissance, des 33 moteurs du lanceur SpaceX ? Pollution sonore, lumineuse, de l’air, tout se conjugue.

      Des milliers de tonnes de CO2

      Selon les déclarations faites par SpaceX à la FAA, chaque décollage de sa fusée Starship émettrait environ 2683 tonnes de CO2, ainsi que 1,7 tonne de protoxyde d’azote. Un gaz 298 fois plus nocif que le CO2, si bien que le bilan final d’un décollage serait estimé (mais qui croire ?) à 3190 tonnes de CO2. À titre de comparaison, cela équivaut au vol simultané et non-stop d’un Boeing 737 durant 15 jours ! Tout ça pour 3 minutes de vol…

      Voilà pour la théorie. Dans la pratique, le scandale grandit aux États-Unis où les répercutions du décollage ont été très grandes, notamment dans la ville de Port Isabel, située à 10 km du pas de tir. La pluie de particules (suie, gaz, carbone noir) qui s’est abattue sur la cité a suscité la panique. La poussière et les débris du pas de tir détruit lors des premières secondes du vol ont été respirées par les habitants, certains ayant dû être pris en charge par les urgences, et la justice saisie.

      Plusieurs heures après le décollage, les satellites qui surveillent la planète ont constaté l’accumulation de particules dans l’air jusqu’à 40 kilomètres d’altitude avec des concentrations pouvant endommager durablement la couche d’ozone qui protège la Terre. Autant d’éléments qui doivent être considérés à un moment où SpaceX veut multiplier les lancements de fusées pour assouvir ses envies de tourisme spatial à destination de milliardaires en manque de sensation. Mais aussi exploration de la Lune et de Mars, et de maillage satellitaires autour de la planète pour vendre des transferts de données toujours plus performants afin d’avoir Instagram et TikTok partout avec nous.

      Il devient urgent qu’un grand débat mondial s’installe pour réguler le secteur du spatial. Sans quoi, les grands discours culpabilisants pour changer les habitudes de chacun au quotidien ne seront plus écoutés.

    • La solitude

      La solitude

      Quand on a toutes les solitudes à la fois, de l’esprit, de la conscience, du cœur, des sens, quand on n’a pas un confident en qui verser toute son âme, pas un être avec qui l’on ose pleurer, ou qui puisse vous donner de la force et du courage ; quand, par délicatesse, ou générosité, ou sagesse, il faut toujours se contenir, se taire, se réserver, cette malédiction atteint bien plus sûrement ses effets. « Il n’est pas bon que l’homme soit seul », cette sentence n’a rien perdu de sa redoutable vérité.

                Journal intime, le 20 juin 1859 de Henri-Frédéric Amiel.

    • Décoller sans dégâts

      Décoller sans dégâts

      « Il y a trois mois nous avons commencé à construire une grande plaque d’acier, à refroidissement par eau, à mettre sous la table de décollage. Nous n’étions pas prêts à temps et nous pensions, à tort, que le béton Fontag résisterait pour un lancement.« 

      Elon Musk fait son méa culpa après la tentative de vol de son Starship le 20 avril denier, qui en décollant a sévèrement endommagé sa table d’envol.

      Déjà lors de l’essai statique du premier étage en février, les 33 moteurs Raptor – poussés à 50% de leur puissance – avaient considérablement détruit le béton du sol, un béton spécial, le Fontag (qu’on peut acheter dans le commerce!), un mélange d’agrégats de synthèse, très denses, et non-poreux, mélangés avec l’alumine de ciment.

      Mais de nombreux observateurs estimaient qu’une tentative de décoller d’un tel système, et à 90% de puissance, était voué à l’échec. SpaceX le reconnaissait en disant que l’essai serai « un succès si le Starship réussissait simplement à décoller sans destruction de l’air de tir« . Le vol fut un échec quand en altitude l’ensemble se mit à tournoyer, incontrôlable.

      Mais l’origine de ce vol avorté résiderait bien dans les dégâts subis justement lors des premières secondes de la mise à feu. D’importants morceaux de béton ont été projetés vers la baie des 33 moteurs Raptor-2. Leur souffle a soulevé d’immenses nuages de poussière, et plusieurs secondes se sont écoulés avant que l’ensemble s’élève et dépasse cet épais nuage.

      En regardant de près les vidéos de ce départ, on voit qu’au moins trois moteurs ne fonctionnaient pas et que l’ascension n’était pas strictement vertical, et que le lanceur glissait légèrement, « en crabe ». Miraculeusement du côté opposé à la grande tour de service.

      Elon Musk veut croire à un prochain vol dans « un ou deux mois« . Il a déjà « en stock » un première étage Super Heavy, (« de nouvel génération » notamment sans commandes hydrauliques – qui apparemment ont failli lors de l’essai du 20 avril) et plusieurs Starship sont déjà assemblés.

      Mais le pas de tir mérite une attention toute particulière. Une nouvelle table serait en cours d’achminement depuis la Floride. C’est sous celle-ci que serait installé le dispositif de plaque métallique.

      carneau-ela3-deluge

      Dès les premiers vols d’Ariane, les pas de tirs à Kourou ont tous fonctionné avec des carneaux et déluges d’eau. Ici ELA-3

      Ce système a déjà fait ses preuves en 2010 lors du développement de Morpheus, programme d’engin à décollage et atterrissage vertical de la NASA. Plusieurs plaques, recouvertes de peinture ablative étaient capables d’absorber la chaleur et le souffle du moteur. Selon Phil Metzger, ingénieur sur le projet de la NASA et spécialiste des matériaux utilisés sur les pas de tir, l’idée de SpaceX de refroidir leur plaque d’acier avec de l’eau serait « géniale » (post sur Twitter le 22/4)

      Selon un ancien dirigeant de SpaceX à la retraite un déflecteur refroidi à l’eau pourrait être installé en 4 à 6 mois.

      L’engin Morpheus de la NASA

      Il reste cependant le bruit intense. Le premier essai de Morpheus fut un échec quand l’engin se désintégra à cause du choc acoustique. Et c’est en construisant un déflecteur de son dans un carneau que l’engin put réussir ses vols suivants.

      C’est un aspect essentiel car sans protection acoustique, l’engin ou lanceur, subit lors de la mise à feu de ses moteurs, une onde de pression acoustique très forte, même supersonique. (Ce que la NASA appelle « Initial OverPressure »). 

      Cette onde génère des vibrations qui remontent le long du fuselage du lanceur. Lors du premier vol de la Navette, la catastrophe avait été évité. Le choc acoustique avait atteint ses élevons et ce n’est que grâce à un déluge d’eau que Columbia pu décoller.

      La navette Columbia sous un déluge d’eau

      Même après cette phase initiale d’allumage des moteurs, leur flux génère par turbulence encore beaucoup de bruit qui est également réfléchi par les surfaces du pas de tir et fait vibrer le lanceur.

      Qu’il n’y ait pas eu de conséquences acoustiques lors du décollage et vol initial du Starship témoigne de la grande solidité de ses structures de dimensions exceptionnelles.

      Sources : SpaceX, Phil Metzger, NASA – Photos: SpaceX, NASA et CNES

    • Starship échec – Le Monde

      Starship échec – Le Monde

      Le Starship, la mégafusée de SpaceX, explose en vol trois minutes après son premier décollage

      La fusée conçue par la société d’Elon Musk se compose de deux éléments, dont le Starship, censé, à terme, transporter du fret ou des passagers, ce qui en ferait le plus gros vaisseau habitable jamais conçu.

      Par Pierre Barthélémy Publié aujourd’hui à 15h36, modifié à 20h17

      Le vaisseau spatial Starship de SpaceX décolle de sa rampe de lancement lors d’un essai en vol depuis la base spatiale de Boca Chica (Texas), aux Etats-Unis, le 20 avril 2023.
      Le vaisseau spatial Starship de SpaceX décolle de sa rampe de lancement lors d’un essai en vol depuis la base spatiale de Boca Chica (Texas), aux Etats-Unis, le 20 avril 2023. PATRICK T. FALLON / AFP

      De multiples fois repoussé depuis l’été 2022, l’événement que tous les fans du spatial attendaient a enfin eu lieu : jeudi 20 avril, le Starship, la mégafusée de SpaceX, a décollé de la base de Boca Chica (Texas), pour son premier vol orbital. Posé sur une sorte de table de décollage, le lanceur de 120 mètres de haut a quitté le sol peu après 15 h 30. Néanmoins, l’enthousiasme des employés de SpaceX, qui criaient de joie et applaudissaient lors de la retransmission du lancement, a été rapidement douché. Trois minutes après le décollage, la fusée a explosé en vol et ses débris sont retombés dans le golfe du Mexique. Lundi 17 avril, une première tentative avait été annulée un quart d’heure avant l’heure fatidique pour un problème de pressurisation.

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      La fusée conçue par la société d’Elon Musk, la plus puissante de l’histoire spatiale, se compose de deux éléments : un premier étage, nommé « Super Heavy », équipé de 33 moteurs Raptor fonctionnant simultanément (du jamais vu) et un second élément de 50 mètres, souvent appelé lui-même « Starship » et doté d’ailerons. Celui-ci est censé, à terme, transporter du fret ou des passagers, ce qui en ferait le plus gros vaisseau spatial habitable jamais conçu.

      Lors de la tentative du 20 avril, les moteurs du Super Heavy (dont certains n’apparaissaient pas allumés sur les images vues du sol) auraient dû s’éteindre moins de trois minutes après le décollage. Aussitôt après, le Starship aurait dû se séparer du premier étage et mettre en marche ses six moteurs pour atteindre l’espace. Rien de tout cela ne s’est produit. Au contraire, les moteurs du Super Heavy semblaient continuer à fonctionner et la séparation n’a jamais eu lieu. La fusée est partie en toupie avant d’exploser, sans que l’on sache si cette explosion est due à la dislocation du lanceur ou bien au système d’autodestruction qui l’équipe.

      Enchaîner les essais jusqu’à ce que cela fonctionne

      Si tout s’était bien passé, le Super Heavy serait retombé dans le golfe du Mexique tandis que le Starship aurait continué son ascension. Il aurait ensuite effectué un quasi-tour de Terre avant de choir à son tour dans l’océan Pacifique, non loin de Hawaï, au terme d’une heure et demie de voyage. Ce premier vol avait en effet aussi pour objectif de tester le bouclier thermique qui équipe le Starship pour l’empêcher de se consumer lors de la rentrée atmosphérique.

      De l’aveu de SpaceX, réussir la mission dans son intégralité aurait tenu de l’exploit. Début mars, Elon Musk lui-même avait reconnu, à l’occasion d’une conférence, qu’il n’y avait qu’une chance sur deux pour que le Starship atteigne l’espace. Cependant, la société américaine a pour philosophie de tenter le coup malgré les risques et d’apprendre de ses échecs. Une démarche appliquée lors de la mise au point de la fusée réutilisable Falcon-9 qui est aujourd’hui le lanceur numéro un du spatial mondial. Depuis le début de l’année, elle a totalisé vingt-quatre tirs, tous réussis, soit un décollage tous les quatre jours et demi.

      Les commentateurs de SpaceX, lors de la retransmission du 20 avril, ont d’ailleurs prudemment répété que le test avait surtout pour but « de recueillir des données et de libérer le pas de tir pour se préparer à décoller de nouveau », selon les mots de l’ingénieur John Insprucker. La crainte principale était que le Starship explose lors de la mise à feu de ses moteurs, ce qui aurait provoqué la destruction du pas de tir et de l’immense tour de lancement de près de 150 mètres de haut qui l’équipe. Et considérablement retardé la mise au point du Starship. Dans un tweet publié peu après le vol avorté, Elon Musk a félicité l’équipe de SpaceX et ajouté un laconique « beaucoup a été appris en vue du prochain vol d’essai dans quelques mois ». Son entreprise dispose déjà de quelques exemplaires du Super Heavy et du Starship et d’autres sont en cours de fabrication. L’idée de SpaceX consiste à enchaîner les essais jusqu’à ce que cela fonctionne.

      Il faut dire que le temps presse. C’est en effet une variante du Starship, le Human Landing System (HLS), que devront emprunter les astronautes américains pour se poser sur la Lune à l’occasion de la mission Artemis-3. Or celle-ci est programmée pour la fin 2025, ce qui paraît très optimiste. Voire irréalisable si l’on songe que, dans la trentaine de mois qui restent, SpaceX devra faire la preuve de la fiabilité de son lanceur, le faire voler avec équipage autour de la Terre et, surtout, réaliser un test à vide sur la Lune. La NASA a d’ores et déjà attribué à SpaceX un budget de 2,9 milliards de dollars pour le HLS, sans prévoir de solution de repli.

    • Starship – analysis ArsTechnica

      Starship – analysis ArsTechnica

      SOUTH PADRE ISLAND, Texas—It began with a bang, as big things often do.

      On Thursday morning, with clearing skies overhead, SpaceX’s Starship rocket slowly began to climb away from its launch pad. Fully laden with about 5,000 metric tons of liquid oxygen and methane propellant, the largest rocket ever built needed about 10 seconds to begin clearing the launch pad.

      From a nearby vantage point, the rocket rumbled and the smoke billowed outward—but it seemed like an eternity before Starship poked its head above the smoke and dust. And then it climbed skyward, a brilliant silvery and fiery streak in the sky.

      What could not be immediately discerned from the ground is that a handful of the Super Heavy first stage’s 33 Raptor engines failed in the early moments of the flight. After about two minutes, more engines failed. Before the end, when the rocket reached a peak altitude just short of 40 km, as many as eight engines appeared to have gone out.

      Understandably, this appears to have led to some control issues at around the moment when the Starship upper stage was supposed to separate from the first stage of the rocket. It’s also possible that a hydraulics problem contributed to an inability to control the direction of the remaining engines’ thrust. Regardless, the launch system began flipping and rolling.

      And then, well, stuff blew up.

      “But it exploded”

      After Thursday’s test, the Internet was on fire. For many people, Elon Musk has done and said some hate-able things of late, and they were ready to hate on him and his rocket company for screwing the pooch. After all, how stupid could engineers be for celebrating a spectacular failure like this?

      This is a totally understandable take. For a general audience who sees NASA at work, an agency that can’t afford to fail, this looks like failure. NASA failures often involve the loss of human life or billion-dollar satellites. So yeah, government explosions are bad.

      But this was not that. For those who know a bit more about the launch industry and the iterative design methodology, getting the Super Heavy rocket and Starship upper stage off the launch pad was a huge success.

      Why? Because one could sit in meetings for ages and discuss everything that could go wrong with a rocket like this, with an unprecedented number of first stage engines and its colossal size. The alternative is simply to get the rocket into a « good enough » configuration and go fly. Flying is the ultimate test, providing the best data. There is no more worrying about theoretical failures. The company’s engineers actually get to identify what is wrong and then go and fix it. But you have to accept some failure.

      So SpaceX’s process is messier, but it is also much faster. Consider this: NASA spent billions of dollars and the better part of a decade constructing the Space Launch System rocket that had a nearly flawless debut flight—aside from damage to the launch tower—in late 2022. NASA followed a linear design method, complete with extensive and expensive analysis, because a failure of the SLS rocket would have raised serious questions about the agency’s competence.

      Fortunately for SpaceX, the company can afford to « fail. » It can do so because it has already built three more Super Heavy rockets that are nearly ready to fly. In fact, SpaceX can build 10 Super Heavy first stages in the time it takes NASA to build a single SLS rocket. If the first five fail but the next five succeed, which is a better outcome? How about in two or three years, when SpaceX is launching and landing a dozen or more Super Heavy rockets while NASA’s method allows it a single launch a year?

      So, yes, SpaceX’s rocket exploded on Thursday. The company will learn. And it will fly again, perhaps sometime later this fall or winter. Soon, it probably will be flying frequently.

      The bad and the good

      That’s not to say this flight test should raise no concerns. SpaceX has already rapidly iterated on the design of the Raptor rocket engine that powers both Super Heavy and the Starship upper stage. Clearly, it must continue to work on making these engines more reliable both at ignition and during the entire flight to space.

      This seems likely given that SpaceX now has ample data on the performance of these engines in flight and the plumbing inside the Super Heavy vehicle’s engine section that feeds them liquid oxygen and methane. It helps that SpaceX can rapidly manufacture these engines at a rate of nearly one a day.

      Another major concern is the ground infrastructure that fuels and supports the Super Heavy rocket prior to liftoff. Post-launch imagery showed a massive crater underneath the Orbital Launch Mount, and there were also concerns with the propellant « farm » that stores gases and liquids needed for the rocket.

      SpaceX will have to make some hard decisions now about whether it needs to build a flame trench underneath the rocket to carry away exhaust and heat or whether an upgraded water deluge system can handle the immense amount of thrust from the vehicle. The company will probably end up constructing the former.

      Solving these issues, particularly with the ground systems, is likely to be the biggest hurdle before the next test flight of Starship can take place.

      On the plus side, the Federal Aviation Administration confirmed there were no injuries during the test. Moreover, one of the rocket’s biggest customers, NASA, was happy with the test.

      « Every great achievement throughout history has demanded some level of calculated risk because with great risk comes great reward, » NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said in a statement after the test flight. « Looking forward to all that SpaceX learns, to the next flight test—and beyond. »

      The Starship era begins

      When SpaceX irons out all of these issues, we’ll be left with the world’s largest fully reusable rocket. This will forever change humanity’s relationship with the cosmos—for better (in terms of access) or potentially worse (in terms of space junk).

      Time will tell.

      I used to regret coming into this world mere months after the final Apollo mission, thinking I had missed the great age of exploration. But I no longer do. In just the last six months, I have seen the launch of the two most powerful rockets ever built, the Space Launch System and Starship. I have seen the naming of not one but two crews that will fly around the Moon, Artemis II and the dearMoon project. As NASA says, we are going.

      Yet still more remarkably, during the last half-year, I have seen two dozen rockets land on a drone ship and fly again. We no longer treat this as remarkable, but we absolutely should. These now-routine Falcon 9 first stage landings at sea are a harbinger of the future. They are like the first fish to walk out of the sea 375 million years ago on Earth, beginning the extraordinary transformation of life on Earth. With these Falcon 9 landings—and now Starship—we are seeing the transformation of life off Earth.

      I turned 50 years old yesterday. In those five decades, we have gone from flying a fully expendable Saturn V rocket to the beginnings of a fully reusable Starship rocket. Much remains to be done, and Starship is a work in progress. But this is historic. No one really knows what our planet, our orbit, or our Solar System will look like with low-cost launch, frequent access to space, and essentially no constraints on mass. We have never experienced anything like that before.

      This is a far more wonderful and wild time in space than any that came before. There is incredible opportunity and peril. The future is unknowable but tantalizing.

      So I no longer have any regrets about missing Apollo. I am thrilled to be alive at this very moment in human history.